Voice of the Masses: Is the “year of Linux on the desktop” question still relevant?
Every year, the same question pops up on technology websites: Is 20XX the year of Linux on the desktop? We’re even tempted to ask it ourselves, because so much is happening in the Linux world. But really, is the question still relevant?
Take a Windows user who spends most of his/her time using Google Mail, Google Drive, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon and the like. Windows may be the desktop OS in this case, but all of the web apps and sites are being served up by Linux. So as people spend more and more time using web apps, many of which are powered by Linux, has Linux already won on the desktop, in one way?
Let us know your thoughts, and we’ll read them out in the next podcast recording!
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About The Author
Mike Saunders
Mike stores his data by printing out hex dumps and laminating the sheets. He's the author of The Haynes Linux Manual and the creator of MikeOS, an operating system hand-built from assembly language.
People are increasingly interested in the idea of small boxes that do a small set of things well. Just yesterday I had a conversation about someone wanting a small box to hook up to an HDTV to use as an easy-access living-room computer / media centre. They were considering a Mac-mini, and of course I suggested they Linux, which would also allow them to save money on the hardware. In this space, Linux is a great contender, and the "Android is Linux underneath" line is a hook that gets people pretty interested.
Whereas computers in the home may be changing a little, in the office space the traditional desktop workstation is still the norm, and Linux has been making great in-roads here in the public sector. Companies are starting to see that it's a sensible choice, particularly those that understand the dangers of vendor lock-in.
So Linux on the desktop? Maybe the landscape is changing a little too much for that question to make sense now. Linux as a recognised and respected option all over the place? I think that can only increase in 2014.
When i look into my new Samsung mobile it says Linux. My Humax set bottom box says Linux. The Virgin cable TV Box says Linux. Virtually every box of electronics in the house runs some form of Linux, even my computers run Linux.
In most of my friends homes, except for the computers, the situation is the same but, they don't care, just as long as it works and all the bits can talk to each other.
All I want now is for my TomTom Satnav (running Linux) to be able to talk to my Linux desktop and I'll be happy.
How very meta.
Snide cynicism aside, I do think it's still a relevant question. Or, rather, it's still a relevant consideration. It's true that most cloud services and web apps are, ultimately, served from a Linux base, but Linux is about much more than that, as we all know. The hypothetical Windows user in the original post still has no access to a proper shell. She's still running closed-source, proprietary code at the very heart of her machine. She's still far more limited for choice than I am. She's still far more susceptible to viruses and malware, and she has very fewer means available to her to identify and eradicate them.
Plus, the longer she insists on running Windows, the longer she's going to insist on sending me emails with .docx attachments, which means that eventually I'm going to have to murder her in her sleep. It's the kindest thing.
Linux is not the strange beast that it was more people are aware of it being the backbone of the internet and, of course, being the dominant mobile device OS in the form of android etc., but until the big manufacturers start selling computers with Linux pre-installed it will still be viewed as a niche OS
What do we actually mean by "year of the Linux Desktop" (YOTLD) anyway?
1) If by YOTLD we mean "year in which 70% of new(-ish) computers from major manufacturers can run Linux with no driver issues or crashes on a vanilla install" we might have already seen that thanks to Ubuntu – love or hate Canonical, that's what they have been aiming at. Blobs, Unity, Mir, binary licensing and the convergence roadmap aside, YOTLD from this perspective may have been reached.
2) If by YOTLD we mean "year in which at least two or three major manufacturers of general purpose desktop/laptop computers (non-appliance) make firm roadmap commitment to offer a Linux option instead of Windows" then we might be nearing it, but not for 2014.
With Steam pushing a Debian fork natively on their new hardware venture, the credibility from the manufacturer's point of view is definitely going to be piqued, and we may see them studying this approach this year, with more mature ideas and plans next year. After that, if they do commit, are they going to roll their own distros, and will they make a hash of it, or innovate completely, or sign up with the likes of Ubuntu/SuSE/Mandriva as third-party providers?
Also, do we count Android as Linux (some dual-boot-as-standard for Windows/Android is on the way I seem to recall), and do we count Chrome OS as Linux too/either (in which case the rise of Chromebooks and the ability to install Chrome OS on ageing machines would be relevant)?
3) If by YOTLD we mean "year when even non-technical users can feel comfortable knowing their box is not Mac OS X or Windows or Chrome OS" then… that solely depends on us: not simply as a global internet community, but also closer to home with meat-space support for our family, friends and neighbours. And, why not, in some tech shops as well.
As long as we simply point new users at forums by only way of support, general acceptance outside of tech enthusiasts will never properly take off.
Not relevant for most users who will tend to use mobile phones/tablets/wearble/whatever devices in future. Windows will carry on with reduced user base where people want a bit more power, keyboard, larger screen, especially if they work from home sometimes, or do admin for club and hobby we/)bsites, make videos, music or pictures.
If, and it's a big 'ïf', workers find their (virtualised?) desktops at work no longer run Windows and MS Office then they will become more open to Linux on desktops/laptops at home.
Personally my wife and I run two Kubuntu desktops, I have an Android phone and tablet, and a Raspberry Pi running OpenElec under the TV as a 'media centre'.
To me, "the Year of Linux on the desktop" signifies the change in OS trends from the two closed, unkept gardens of the monoliths towards the growing wilderness of *nix variety.
This will be gradual, and it has already begun, very much thanks to Canonical and Ubuntu (which nevertheless stand on the shoulders of giants).
A clear marker in history, is the adoption of Linux OS by the nontechnical, pragmatic computer users. And not as a built-in, but as their operating system of choice.
As a consultant for a large ISP 2012-13, I received a few support calls where the user had GNU/Linux. Mostly Ubuntu ran by regular users. For me, the year of Linux on the desktop already came and went.
Change is gradual.
– Sigge
I don't think the question is relevant anymore. The landscape has changed; PC sales are in decline and the tide has shifted towards iOS or Android-powered tablets for day-to-day emailing & browsing needs. A handful of people may have bought a Surface Pro or RT, but some people bought the City Rover too, so I wouldn't read too much into that.
The Enterprise is taking a little longer to change, but they're usually five years behind the rest of the world anyway. A few public sector organisations on the continent have made the shift (Munich, La Gendarmerie Nationale), but there's more to do there…
Perhaps it is time we ask a different question, such as "Is this the year of linux gaming", or "Is this the year of Linux on the Enterprise desktop". The consumer desktop ship has, for the most part, sailed.
The definition of 'desktop' has three parts:
1) Is the desktop classical h/w configuration still an important space to be in and what is it's future?
2) What OS will be running on the desktop and does it matter?
3) What actions will be being performed on the desktop?
The answer to 1) is yes (but only just) and it is more than likely to be (to all intents and purposes) dead in 5-10 years time. Mobile/tablet/wearable platforms will be the way in which the vast majority of people interact with the internet by then. And for the foreseeable future the internet is where the action will be.
The answer to 2) is in the future it will most probably be open-source based. Open source will dominate when the desktop is in its death throes because it will be a low volume, low margin, off-the shelf commodity which commercial megalopolies ( Microsoft, Apple) will not see any purpose in supporting. And no it won't really matter what OS is running because the vast majority of activity will be internet based.
This question is getting kind of old, I don't think It will be true soon though, not until Microsoft goes bankrupt or another rescission/depression comes about.
First off, the desktop as a platform is not dying. People who point to it's demise use marketshare statistics with mobile platforms thrown in. Yes the desktop's marketshare has gone down, but only because mobile platform sales have skyrocketed. Overall sales numbers of desktops have not declined, they have just held steady. I'm just a home user, don't use my computer for business, but I do use my desktop for a LOT more than just web browsing. So personally I'll always want one. Ditto for my teenage son who has additionally gone mobile.
This year definitely looks good for Linux on the desktop, not only with SteamOS on the horizon, but also with the coming end of support for Windows XP. I personally will be spreading the word to everyone I can about the need to stop using XP for security reasons and suggest an install of Linux rather than running out to buy a pc running the abomination that is Windows8. I'll also be taking in as many discarded XP machines as I can get my hands on, installing Linux (Mint if possible), and giving them away to people that can't afford new hardware.
that is a very good Idea, 'nix'ing XP machines for the less fortunate. I like it, well done!
Bored. Move on.
Happy New Year though!
Nope.
No, it’s not relevant. And in my opinion it never has.
The question tends to look at the success of Linux based on the user base. In my experience measuring success just on numbers doesn’t quite tell the full story.
Linux is successful, serves many purposes, has many applications, it’s extremely flexible… I would call that success regardless of whether or not market share is big or small, which I don’t think was ever a concern.
Someone asked the question once and we all played along, but there was never a reason for it.
Last year was the first full year of using GNU/Linux on the desktop without dual booting for a safety net, and aside from accidentally hosing my OS a few times, 2013 was the year of the Linux desktop for me.
With XP being dropped finally (queue angelic choir), this could be the year that to watch.
I think you should amend the question to "Is this the year of a Linux breakthrough for consumers?" We know Linux variants have been around for years, but as others have commented, as a desktop OS, it is perhaps a niche market. However, a couple of major releases will make the "wo/man on the street" take notice. The first is SteamOS, which we already have, but I suspect it will make a bigger impact and become more widespread in 2014. The second is Ubuntu, which again we already have, but with the forthcoming launch of 14.04 on phones, tablets and PCs, Ubuntu will hopefully become a household word. The unfortunate thing in all this is that the name Linux itself, may get bypassed in favour of branded distros based upon it. However, the kernel itself, whilst brilliant, still relies on a ever-expanding software stack to "get stuff done", so even if a few new names appear and become mainstream, that will keep me happy. Speaking of happy… Happy New Year!
The year of linux on the desktop for me was 2006…that is when moved wholly to Linux at home. Only relevance to this irrelevant question is that it keeps being brought up constantly. It is used as a trigger for flame wars, opinionated eulogies, redefining what "The year of Linux on desktop" means, and some thing to talk about when you have run out of things to talk about. The results are the same, and include a groan of despair from those for whom Linux is a natural part of life…"What is stopping us from moving on?" I vote for another voice of the masses…or have 2 VOTMs a week, with the question… In the modern world who pays for marketing something that is free?
My question for VOTM2 is :-What is more irritating than typing in a long opinionated eulogy in a comments section and then losing it all as the wifi connection is dropped.
Yes.
Despite the current "post PC" narrative, the desktop PC isn't going anywhere.
Tablets and phones are now the computing devices used most often by most people of course and PC sales have been declining for years. Neither of which render the desktop PC obsolete.
The former point is somewhat irrelevant, tablets/etc. do not replace desktops for all but the most casual of users (the sort of user who only used their laptop for facebook, email and youtube or whatever). PCs are still where people do serious work and, more importantly, *create* stuff. Even if that is a shrinking market in real terms rather than just proportionally, it's still an incredibly important one.
The decline in PC sales *does not* mean there are fewer PCs in use, it means that people are upgrading less because they don't need to. Older hardware is usable for longer than it used to be. During the late 90s and early-mid 00s I had to, as a gamer, upgrade my machine every 18-24 months in order to keep playing the latest games. Now I run a 4 year old PC and can still run any current game at full whack with no need to upgrade in sight.
The pace of hardware improvements has decreased drastically – partly due to just hitting the limits of the technology and partly because the consoles have been in hardware stasis for many many years (and the next gen is continuing that trend).
And then there's the web app argument: desktops are less important because we're using the web/web apps for more and more stuff. This is true of course, but again only really covers those most casual of users. People who create the things that those users consume still need desktop software and a secure, versatile, performant desktop on which to run it, and will do for the foreseeable future. As do PC gamers.
The desktop is certainly declining as a proportion of computer use. But it's still a huge 'market' (certainly a bigger one than when MS made its vast fortune catering solely to it) . And regardless of its size is an incredibly important one. It's where the stuff that everyone else watches, plays, listens to, works on and reads is made.
So, yes, the question is still relevant. And the future of Linux on the desktop is looking rosy. As the casual users bleed off to mobile devices we're left with those users who naturally want more control, more granularity and more versatility, which is exactly what Linux provides.
I think the question is less relevant in that we've all outgrown the notion that Linux is ever going to explode on the desktop, going from 2% to dominance in any given year. But I think we'll continue to see slow (but (slowly) accelerating), steady, inexorable growth as more and more 'power users' and media creators move to Linux. And that's great, we should certainly continue to pursue that and think about how to help it along rather than claiming it's all about mobile and giving up.
It will always be relevant as a question even if it only helps us find out why it is not on more desktops. On the other hand 2014 does seem to be going to be the "year of Linux everywhere except the desktop" so it is not very relevant.
The only people who care about hardware form factors are manufacturers. The keyboard & mouse input will continue to be a dominant method of getting real work done for a while to come. The reality of writing articles and books, programming, CAD and 3D will need a keyboard and a place to sit or stand for decades to come. And only linux and the BSDs appear to be able to adapt fluidly through these use cases.
Yeah, I think it's still relevant, but perhaps not as we would have imagined even a brief period of time ago.
Sure, a lot of consumer tech is now small portable units, rather than a PC on a wobbly "computer desk" in the corner, but we still have laptops and the offices are going to be using PCs and laptops for a good while yet, so perhaps it's not "when", more like "where".
Well said
Yes, 2014 will be the year of the Linux Desktop. But have you seen the freaking Mac Pro? I want one, and I have no idea what Thunderbolt is. So, in my house, 2014 may be the Year Of a Stupidly Expensive IT Purchase (YOSEIP).
I'm so sick of hearing about the “year of Linux on the desktop” I could puke.
I think we are at last getting to the point where we can confidently say that Linux is becoming noticably dominant. That may not be on desktop machines directly, that won't ever happen unless PC's are sold with Linux pre-installed. But now the computing world has spead from the desktop to the phone in your pocket and is creeping ever closer to your car and to your TV in the front room, then I would say "YES! This is the year of Linux – full stop! Forget the desktop"
linux kernel is already in tv’s washers, refrigerators, cars, etc,etc,, the list goes on and on, probably the phone in your pocket running Android.
The consumer doesn't really care what OS they are using; they also don't care much about software freedom. If all that happens is Linux is used as a base for proprietary applications/games, are we really any better off than if we're using Windows?
Perhaps we should be thinking more about Freedom on the Desktop. Linux could be a major part of achieving that – in fact, it may be the only serious candidate currently available.
Linux has reached the masses, it is not near being the dominant OS on the desktop space but a free and open source model means that the linux kernel is everywhere in mobile and other systems not already monopolised.
A more relevant question would be is the concept of Linux on the desktop that we clung so dearly too over the years achieved in these new environments where the kernel is used. My answer would be a hearty no to this. Android makes no mention of linux. Despite the kernel being literally in the hands of 10's of millions of people every day, none of them are as excited as us linux geeks when we finally got damn small linux to boot on virtualbox or found yet another killer application in the package manager.
We need to move on from linux on the desktop. I use it every day for most of my waking hours, but I am an exception to the rule. The majorities of the consumers don't want this, and our far too entrenched in the Microsoft and/or Mac ecosystem to change for no "good" reason.
The year of the Linux Desktop? Hasn't it already been a decade or more, of the Linux desktop? I know it has been the decade of the Linux Kernel. I am tempted to ask, is there any tech left out there that doesn't have some sort of Linux at it's base? As far as THE DESKTOP is concerned, how many desktops were sold 10 years ago, as compared to now? how many of them have been converted to Linux? how many sold today with MS that dual boot Linux or have been converted to Linux? How many old Mac's have been converted to Linux boxes? or dual boot? where XP machines make a good conversion machine, not having to buy new hardware to make a good Linux machine. is that why people think desktop sales are diminishing? I expect if anyone can show an actual statistic of just how many machines in use today don't run Linux, then I can really answer the question "is this the year of the Linux desktop?"
2014 The year of desktop linux, could well be for the consumer, the enterprise may take a year or so more. This year linux will certainly be making even further widespread advances in the consumer market and with consumer acceptance. The announcements this week at CES such as, LG's webOS based TV, steamOS with 13 hardware partners and the Chrome Books, Android all in ones, both of which use the linux kernel, though the linux detractors have conveniently forgotten that linux is only the kernel, other open source technologies make a full blown desktop distro.
The linux detractors often mention that, as the linux desktop does not run xyz application it will never be accepted, but as mentioned in your article the average consumer no longer needs and probably never really needed these applications in the first place, why pay hundreds of dollars for an application when consumers can have an app/cloud based app for free or just a few dollars that does what they need.
Consumers dumping XP need a friend or family member who is a linux user to help, my mom's old XP laptop will be upgraded to elementary OS, as she now uses her tablet for most of her computing needs, the few instances a desktop PC is required a lightweight *simple* to use desktop, utilizing old hardware is ideal. For those who have no choice but to upgrade their hardware as well, I suspect a chrome book or android all-in-one will be a popular choice due to price point and maybe they already own an android based smart phone.
actually it is just as easy or easier to install a Linux distro today than MS or OSX. If you really want you could these days just run one live right from a cd/dvd, flash drive, pen drive(usb), over a network.etc.etc… and as far as appp xyz, there are even better alternative and whole distro's, that aren't MS or Mac.
It doesn’t matter how easy it is to install linux compared to installing MS/OSX.
Most Windows users are still buying Windows pre-installed. They would be just as afraid to install Windows as they are to install linux.
The short answer is no.
It is my impression that the whole idea of the desktop is in flux again, smart devices have changed the dynamics.
I think the "market" as a whole has not decided the difference between media consumption and work and which device is appropriate. Humans are really good at rationalizing things that when it comes down to it they just want. Nobody “needs” these things, sure they can make things easier but what did we do before they existed?
So now we've got these devices that may or may not do what we wanted or what we didn't know we wanted at the time. Given our somewhat irrational love for the “shiny” actual usage patterns over time is what will ultimately decide. The technology just hasn't been around long enough for the "invisible hand" to sort it out.
So… bearing in mind that timing is everything and that the Linux ecosystem is diverse, should the opportunity arise, be recognized as an opportunity and the cats be herded in more or less one direction for a bit, Linux is well positioned to fill the void should a desktop be required. (Apologizes for that sentence.)
The fascination with smart phones and tablets has led people to try new user interfaces and I think that users are far more open now to experimenting with user interfaces. I expect some tablet-like interface would have the best chance at success.
In my mind, I don't really want to see the "year of Linux on the desktop." The entire phrase infers the message, "Linux is as good as it can be and is in as many places as possible." No longer will there be infinite flavours and customisations because pseudo-standard solutions shove competition out of relevance. Everything "just works" for the every-man and nobody ever wants more. It can only stay at that level of "goodness" or go down hill from then on. There's a dissatisfying sense of closure about it.
Perhaps the question should be replaced by, "Will 2XXX be the end of the Linux age?" Because the year of Linux on the desktop will surely come before it.
On a less sombre note: WOOO! Well done with the crowdfunding guys!
Yes, I think the question is still relevant. I do however not believe in a sudden burst in the usage of Linux as the main computer operating system. For me the year of the Linux desktop, is the year where the usage percentage of Linux on the desktop is large enough to ensure us timely and first rate support for our platform for all large services.
As just one example in the video serving world, I still cannot get netflix, even though it is a web service (yeah I know about pipelight etc., but running it with a patched version of wine through an obsolete plugin API on Firefox is just not good enough).
You might argue that if standardized web technology platforms like HTML5 become the norm over crappy closed tech like Silverlight and Flash, then those problems will go away, but I think that it is big if. As long as there is a economic incentive, Microsoft continue to make and push Windows only technologies. As long as they do that, services will continue to use them. The only thing that will change that, is when Linux is a big enough marked share to force force web service providers (and other software companies) to consider using standardized and cross platform tech to begin with.
That is the year of the Linux desktop and it is still a while of.
The short answer is NO.
I think the divide and conquer rule applies here, there are just too many Distros doing their own thing to be able to offer a viable alternative which "just works out of the box". You would have thought the end of Windows-XP would be an opportunity, but I feel the boat has been missed in this case. Sadly using a GNU/Linux Distro on the desktop is still the play thing for computer geeks.
wow thank you for considering me a computer geek, and my cousins, and aunts, and many many friends over 55 years old that don't even know what a diode is. let alone what machine code or any codeing language is. just what is the definition of GEEK in your opinnion? and all I did for them was mail them a dvd of PCLinuxOS, they all installed it on their own, some in other languages. most on old XP throw aways.
the year of the linux destop will arrive when the GNU world order begins.
Tizen will be king of the GNU World Order
I’m not sure if the question is relevant but I’m sure Linux is here to stay and has proven its self in many fields. The desktop market is deminishing however mobile and tablet usage is increasing fast where Linux is the underlying OS, Android isn’t the only one here either.
I agree with more and more web apps out performing desktop applications the platform you run is becomming less and less important.
One thing I can say is that Linux has >99% market share* on the Raspberry Pi, it’s been placed perfectly for young people to grow up with – nice work.
* Unverrified statistic, I assume at least one loco ese has RiscOS running.
If all the programs are reduced to services of the cloud based variety, the matter of whether Linux is on the desktop or be it behind the cloud overshadowing it, is irrelevant. I don't want my desktop on someone else's server.
The year of FOSS on the desktop is upon us, count on it with base zero notation.
If you are a mere point-and-click *consumer* of internet content, indeed, it will not matter much what platform you are using to access that content.
However, if you are a *producer* of content, be it internet-related or not, GNU/Linux on the desktop will become increasingly more relevant for two reasons:
1. A multi-monitor desktop with keyboard remains the most effective way to produce content.
2. GNU/Linux packaging systems provide the easiest way to access to the latest versions of content producing applications.
P.S.: Previously, I discovered and used to listen to Linux Format on an internet radio unit because it was listed on ShoutCast. Would it be possible to also list this podcast? Thank you very much in advance.
Too many cooks spoil the broth. Gnome, is an idiotic looking desktop with icons tucked away in icons. Click the wrong icon and you have to start all over again going through icons to find icons, to click on the icon that you meant to click on.
KDE, looks like a cardboard cutout a desktop bolted together by stretchable elastic. Window stretches open when you click to open it. The window collapses when closing it ping-pong there it goes sinking in slow motion.
Unity Desktop welcome back to the late 80s where your work does not get done you get done with trying. Even outshined by the Amstrad AMX desktop or AmigaOS Workbench 1.1.
If you want to work fast and you want your work done you use the NSA Windows 7 or the Apple NSA system.
Maybe somebody will create something useable next time with the replacement of the X window system that is supposed to be happening.
I just dove into Linux and got as far as triple-booting with Windows 7, Linux Mint and Zorin. I finally realized that I was continually booting into Windows to find stuff for on of the distros, because there was no way that any distro would operate as smoothly as good W7HP. I wound up deleting the Linux partitions and reverting my PC back to its original state. I suppose I may try Linux again and then give it up again, because it's never gonna surpass the standard.
thats if the standard is viruses and blue screens of death , and always losing the work you just thought you finished. oh, and waiting 74% of the time just to be able to use that system. rebooting all the time just to be able to do something, because you can’t start your work till the system is able to work.